Rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy

The repetition of policy dynamics on Quantitative Easing (QE) and interest rate by Fed potentially cause fluctuations in the exchange rate, including Indonesia. Therefore, this study aims to analyze determinants impacts shocks. Inflation (INF), Money Supply (LJUB), Open Market Operations (OPT), Foreign Exchange Reserves (LCD), Expected (LEHU) Interest Rates (SB) were used Rate (NT) through Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). impact NT shocks was analyzed using Vector (VAR) LEHU, Residential Property Price Index (PIHPR), Stock Transactions (LTRANS), Banking Credit Volume (VK). variable incorporation ARDL-VAR are novelties study. In secondary time series data for 2014M1 – 2022M9 period, ARDL results showed that INF LJUB had positive effect both long short run, while OPT, LCD SB negative effect. LEHU but run. speed adjustment model 49.86% per month. Shock impacted VK until 15 months, PIHPR at 7 LTRANS 10 14 months. Based these results, it can be implied monetary authority must maintain stability NT, especially transmission. Next, shock's also overcome, VK. This research is only focused sector, further will refined with other macroeconomic variables.